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Establishing Caribbean Drought Early Warning Information Systems (DEWIS) Adrian Trotman Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
US Drought Monitor Meeting West Palm Beach, Florida 16-18 April, 2013
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology PRIMARY FUNCTIONS • Train various categories of • •
• • •
meteorological and hydrological personnel Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Data collection, storage, & dissemination Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology Provide consulting services to industry
An arm of the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation
Rainfall in the Caribbean • Characterized by a wet and a dry season… • …except Guyana to the north with two wet and two dry seasons associated with ITCZ • At least 70 to over 80 % of the rainfall occurs during the wet season • Large seasonal, interannual and inter-decadal variability… • …associated with ENSO, SST anomalies and NAO • Rainfall also cyclical – 50 to 60 years
Why concerns over drought? Wet season rainfall as a percentage of annual rainfall (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999). Seasonal Impacts
Future dryer regime likely to increase frequency of drought episodes
Moving 10 year averages of rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados (Burton 1995). Impacts potentially more severe during drier phases.
Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN) • CDPMN launched under Caribbean Water Initiative CARIWIN in January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010 • Goal of CARIWIN is to increase the capacity of the Caribbean countries to deliver equitable and sustainable IWRM by • Implemented jointly by McGill University, CIMH and 3 partner countries (Grenada, Jamaica, Guyana) • Region was facing drought during latter part of 2009 rainy season due to El Niño – Just months after launch. • CPDMN – mobilised to provide information and advice to regional governments.
• Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices • Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought • Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)
Follow the leader? USDM
Caribbean Basin Monitoring Caribbean SPI and Deciles
Region dominated by seas surface so rainfall monitoring at this scale
2009-2010 Drought • Began during the 2009 rainy season (in particular the month of October) • Stations in Trinidad, Grenada, St. Vincent, Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica Jamaica, recorded their lowest ever February rainfall totals • Stations in Anguilla, Grenada, Trinidad, Dominica and St. Vincent recorded their lowest ever 3 month (January to March) • Stations recorded their lowest six month (October 2009 to March 2010) totals. These included stations in Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Guyana • Over 24 years of record at Point Saline Airport in Grenada, 2009 lowest annual total
Follow the Leader? NIDIS
Being included in Caribbean Hazard Platform Supported by the Government of Italy
CARICOM/Brazil programme in DRR Drought • Implemented by CIMH • Pilot Countries: Grenada, St. Lucia, Jamaica • Training in drought monitoring and planning (assisted by NDMC) • Provision of monitoring instruments (illustrative) • Upgrade of CWM • Draft Implementation plans for DEWIS (to Cabinet)… • In the context of a Drought Management framework
Framework for National Drought Management Focus on Drought Early Warning & Information Systems